Declining headline inflation yet to ease food prices – Economist

An economist, Ephraim Audu, says rising food inflation is deepening pressure on Nigerian households, in spite of the decline in headline inflation to 15.43 per cent in July.

Audu, who is also the President of Agricultural Agenda Nigeria Initiative (AANI), said this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN)in Abuja on Sunday.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had recently reported that headline inflation declined by 0.48 percentage points from 15.91 per cent in June to 15.43 per cent in July.

It said that core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, declined to 14.97 per cent, down from 15.91 per cent.

However, food inflation rose sharply on a month-on-month basis to 5.56 per cent in July, from 3.75 per cent in June.

This is in spite of the year-on-year food inflation rate falling from 26.20 per cent in July 2025 to 20.31 per cent.

Audu said the development was particularly worrisome as prices of essential food items continued to increase.

He listed food items experiencing price increase to include rice, tomatoes, onions, pepper, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, crayfish, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour.

He said that Adamawa recorded the highest food inflation rate at 51.36 per cent, followed by Katsina at 30.84 per cent and Zamfara at 30.65 per cent.

Audu said although headline inflation declined from 15.91 per cent to 15.43 per cent, the development had yet to translate into meaningful relief for consumers.

According to him, rising food prices continue to erode purchasing power, forcing households to spend more on basic necessities and less on healthcare, education, savings and other essential needs.

He said the trend had significant implications for poverty, food security, living standards, consumer demand, business costs and investor confidence.

Audu said that farmers were also under pressure from high input, energy and transportation costs, which could reduce their real income and discourage investment in agriculture.

He called for urgent and coordinated interventions focused on affordable agricultural finance.

He also called for intervention in mechanisation, irrigation, improved inputs, climate-resilient and regenerative agriculture, rural infrastructure, storage, processing, transportation and stronger farmer-to-market linkages.

“These measures can expand food supply, reduce production and distribution costs, strengthen smallholder farmers’ incomes and attract investment into agricultural value chains,” he said.

Audu said that failure to address the trend could allow food inflation to develop into a deeper and avoidable socioeconomic crisis.

For consumers, however, the moderation in headline inflation has yet to translate into significant relief at the market.

Mrs Mutiat Daud, a businesswoman, said the decline in headline inflation had not translated into lower food prices.

“That inflation is going down does not mean that food prices are not rising, coupled with the fact that transportation cost is increasing because of fuel prices, which has affected everything,” she said.

Daud said she recently bought five tubers of yam for N17,000 in spite of the arrival of the new yam season.

She urged the government to intensify efforts across the agricultural value chain and ensure that interventions reached their intended beneficiaries.

A public servant, Mrs Titilayo Samuel, said she had noticed slight reductions in the prices of some food items, adding that they, however, remain unaffordable for many households.

“The prices of tomatoes and tatatshe are reducing. Last month, a dustbin basket of tomatoes was going for as high as N9,000, but it is now reducing,” she said.

Samuel said prices needed to fall further and remain stable, noting that many average households are struggling to afford even two meals a day.

A civil servant, Mrs Chika Nwosu, said prices of several food items remained high, putting pressure on household budgets.

She said a mudu of beans sold for between N1,800 and N2,000, while yam remained expensive in spite of the arrival of new yam.

She, however, said that she had noticed slight reductions in the prices of some items, including okra and garri.

NAN reports that the three largest contributors to headline inflation on a year-on-year basis, according to the NBS, were food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.18 per cent, restaurants and accommodation services at 1.99 per cent, and transport at 1.64 per cent.

The bureau attributed the month-on-month increase in food inflation to rising prices of crayfish, fresh pepper, onions, carrots, rice, water yam, tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger and plantain flour.

(NAN)