Experts urge policy shift to tackle China trade imbalance

Trade experts have raised concerns over the need for the Federal Government to make deliberate efforts through policy implementation to tackle the widening Nigeria-China trade imbalance.

This is coming weeks after the Chinese Embassy in Nigeria said imports from Nigeria into the Chinese market rose by 81 per cent in the first half of 2026, attributing the increase to expanding bilateral trade and China’s zero-tariff policy for Nigerian products.

Recall that the Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Yu Dunhai, disclosed at an international seminar in Abuja that Chinese imports from Nigeria rose by about $2.3bn in the first half of 2026, representing an 80 per cent increase.

Yu also said bilateral trade between Nigeria and China reached $18bn during the period, representing a 35 per cent year-on-year increase.

According to him, the growth followed the implementation of China’s zero-tariff policy on May 1, covering 53 African countries with which Beijing maintains diplomatic relations.

The ambassador said the policy had reduced the cost of exporting Nigerian products, including sesame, cattle bone granules and liquefied propane, to China.

Reacting to this, an international trade consultant and maritime expert, Okey Ibeke, in a statement on Tuesday obtained by The PUNCH, cautioned the Federal Government against judging Beijing’s new zero-tariff policy by raw commodity export growth alone.

This is even as he welcomed the increase in Nigeria’s exports to China under Beijing’s new zero-tariff policy. Ibeke, who is also a Principal Consultant, International Trade Advisory Services Ltd, said the figures were encouraging but should be considered against the broader structure of Nigeria-China trade.

Ibeke emphasised that available 2025 trade figures showed that Nigeria exported about N2.78tn worth of goods to China but imported approximately N19.79tn from the country, leaving a trade deficit of about N17tn.

He said the imbalance made it necessary to assess whether the new policy was merely increasing trade volumes or “helping Nigeria build productive capacity.”

“An increase in exports is welcome, but the real test is whether Nigeria is capturing more value, creating more jobs and strengthening its productive base,” Ibeke said.

Ibeke said China’s decision to eliminate tariffs on qualifying African products represented a significant market opportunity for Nigerian businesses, but access to a market did not automatically create competitiveness.

“Nigerian exporters still face high energy and transport costs, expensive financing, foreign-exchange challenges, inadequate infrastructure, poor logistics, limited storage and processing facilities and difficulties meeting international certification requirements,” he added.

“Zero tariff at the destination is only one part of the equation. The exporter must first be able to produce competitively, consistently and at the required quality and scale,” he said.

He noted that the Chinese ambassador had similarly identified product quality, reliable supply chains and local processing as essential for African exporters to benefit from the policy.

Ibeke said Nigeria should therefore use the new market access to strengthen domestic production rather than simply increase shipments of raw commodities.

The trade consultant said Nigeria’s agricultural and natural-resource endowment could support substantially higher exports if more products were processed locally.

He identified sesame, cashew, cocoa, cassava, soybean, rubber and solid minerals among commodities with significant opportunities for value addition.

Ibeke said the reported $2.3bn increase in exports should therefore be viewed as a positive opportunity rather than the final measure of success.

Also speaking, the Group Managing Director of Wide Scope Group of Companies, Segun Musa, said, “At the critical stage we are in Nigeria, definitely we cannot achieve balance of trade. Balance of trade is not a natural phenomenon; it is a strict policy incentive or motivation.”

According to him, for Nigeria to achieve balance of trade with China, a lot has to be done.

“There is a need for what we call policy shifts. We must be able to build capacity. The capacity is what we exchange with China. As we speak today, Nigeria does not have that capacity. And we do not have a policy that can drive such capacity. So definitely there is going to be a continuous, huge difference in our trade balance,” Musa said.

He maintained that the balance of trade was something that happened based on policy drive and implementation.

“So it’s not something that one should just wish for, or one should just bring up a kind of rigid policy to push for it. It’s something that happens based on policy drive and implementation. You could have a policy, but if you cannot implement it, it’s another challenge entirely,” Musa stressed.

He opined that as much as China is doing a lot to build capacity so that they can have much to push down to this part of the world, Nigeria should also enhance the policy drive that promotes production, manufacturing, as well as building raw material capacity.

“Because it’s not only about finished product; raw materials are part of indicators that are used in the measurements. So we must be able to build capacity that we can exchange with China,” he stated.