October Electoral Map: PIG projects APC to win 19 States, NDC 10, ADC 8

The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng has released its October electoral map, projecting a shift in the distribution of states among the major political blocs ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.

At a press conference in Maryland, Lagos on Friday, the convener of PIG, Lai Omotola, stressed that the monthly electoral map should not be interpreted as a declaration of the eventual election result, but as a snapshot of the political landscape based on developments at the time of the assessment.

According to Omotola, the purpose of the exercise is to enable political parties and candidates to identify areas of strength and weakness and adjust their strategies accordingly.

“Our monthly electoral map is for parties to see where they are weak and strong and this does not suggest the final result but rather if elections were to be held this month this projection is likely to be the outcome.”

The October assessment comes after a month marked by several developments that PIG said could influence the political calculations ahead of the 2027 election.

Omotola identified the reported denial of entry into Benue State involving Peter Obi, one of President Bola Tinubu’s leading political opponents, as one of the notable developments during September.

He also cited the controversy surrounding President Tinubu’s working vacation, which generated debate over the president’s absence from the country, as another development considered in the group’s assessment.

The group also pointed to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s continued focus on the fuel subsidy issue and what it described as a “sudden turnaround” as part of the political developments observed during the month.

Beyond individual political figures, PIG also assessed the level of mobilisation by the major political parties.

Omotola said the APC appeared to be conducting more campaign-related mobilisation across the country, followed by the NDC, while the ADC had established a Presidential Campaign Council but had yet to embark on major nationwide campaigns.

He also drew attention to an emerging disagreement between some APC governors and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, saying the political dispute could become significant in the evolving electoral calculations.

Under the October projection, PIG said the APC would record a net reduction in its projected state tally, falling from 20 states in September to 19 states in October.

The movement is attributed to the ruling party losing Rivers State while gaining Adamawa State.

Omotola said: “This electoral map for October shows APC loose two states of Rivers but gained Adamawa state reducing the number of state win by APC from 20 in September to 19 in October.”

The September PIG map had projected the APC at 20 states, with the ADC on nine and the NDC on eight. Contemporary reports on that earlier projection also described it as a forecast based on prevailing political circumstances rather than a prediction of the final election result.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), according to the October assessment, also experiences a reduction in its projected reach.

PIG said the party, which was projected to win nine states in September, would secure eight states in October, with Adamawa moving into the APC column.

Omotola said: “ADC remaining dominant in September 9 states but unfortunately lost Adamawa to APC. In October electoral map projects ADC will win 8 states.”

The change means Adamawa becomes one of the states responsible for the movement in the projected electoral map between the two months.