Osun Poll: Political Violence Raises Security Fears Ahead Of August 15 Election

With just days to the August 15 governorship election in Osun State, concerns over security are mounting as a wave of political violence across several local government areas reinforces warnings by the National Peace Committee and its secretariat, The Kukah Centre, that parts of the state remain vulnerable to election-related unrest.

In its Political and Security Context Analysis, presented during a stakeholders’ engagement in Osogbo, The Kukah Centre identified 15 local government areas as critical, high or moderate violence-risk zones ahead of the poll.

The report placed Osogbo and Irewole Local Government Areas in the critical-risk category, while Iwo, Boripe, Ife Central and Ife East were classified as high-risk LGAs, citing organised political violence, electoral offences, institutional tensions and information disorder as major threats requiring proactive intervention.

The assessment comes against the backdrop of a series of violent incidents recorded in several of the identified flashpoints.

Osogbo

The state capital has witnessed multiple shooting incidents linked to political violence. On June 8, suspected hoodlums reportedly fired gunshots in Aregbesola Area, Olaiya, Old Garage and Oke Fia, throwing residents into panic.

An attack at Owode-Ede left an elderly man injured, while a commercial bus driver was struck by a stray bullet in the Aregbesola Area.

The Accord Party also alleged that its Osogbo Local Government Chairman, Asimiyu Ajibola, was shot multiple times on June 3 and remains hospitalised.

Irewole (Ikire)

Irewole was ranked alongside Osogbo as a critical-risk LGA by The Kukah Centre.

The Accord Party claimed one of its members, Kolade Eluyera, was murdered in the local government in what it described as a politically motivated attack.

Ife Central and Ife East (Ile-Ife)

Violence erupted on June 8 during an APC solidarity walk in support of its governorship candidate, Bola Oyebamiji. The procession reportedly turned violent in the Sabo area after campaign posters of a rival candidate were allegedly torn down, leading to clashes between suspected APC and Accord Party supporters armed with dangerous weapons.

Boripe

The Accord Party alleged that Oladimeji Taiwo and Oloyede Damilare were killed during political violence in Boripe Local Government, one of the areas classified as high risk.

Ilesa

Although not listed among the critical or high-risk councils by The Kukah Centre, political tension has also been reported in Ilesa.

The Accord Party alleged that Ismaila Ibrahim and Kasali Adebayo lost their lives during the 2025 local government crisis.

Beyond the reported killings and shootings, the Accord Party listed several members—including Aderemi Abideen Abiodun (Ojubintin), Aderombi Abass, Ganiyu Gele, Wole Vulcanizer, Rafiu Quadri Abiodun and Elijah Baba Ewe—as victims of separate attacks across the state.

Presenting the security assessment, The Kukah Centre’s Project Manager, Asabe Ndahi, said the report was based on six weeks of field observations gathered through the Centre’s Election Security Information Hub.

“Based on our data, we have about 15 local governments that fall within critical, high and moderate risk. Particularly, Osogbo and Irewole local government areas fall within the critical risk index. We also have high-risk local governments like Iwo, Boripe, Ife Central and Ife East. We are engaging security agencies on measures to reduce these incidents and ensure a peaceful election.”

The report was presented at a stakeholders’ meeting organised by the National Peace Committee, through The Kukah Centre, with support from the European Union under the EU Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria programme. Representatives of INEC, security agencies, the ICPC and other stakeholders attended the engagement.

With campaigns entering their final stretch, the assessment is expected to guide security deployments to identified flashpoints as authorities intensify efforts to prevent violence and ensure a peaceful governorship election on August 15.