Starmer's Waterloo? : Andy Burnham emerges as Labor's answer to Reform Party surge

MANCHESTER, England — A parliamentary election Thursday in a working-class district on the outskirts of Manchester has become a surprisingly critical referendum on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership — and perhaps the future of British politics.

The Labor Party’s Andy Burnham, the charismatic, liberal mayor of Greater Manchester, is the leading candidate in the race to fill a seat vacated by a member of Parliament. The election, however, is more than a simple by-election for an open seat: Mr. Burnham is setting his sights on challenging Mr. Starmer for the ruling, center-left party’s top job.

Member of Parliament Josh Simon, one of Mr. Bunham’s allies in London, stepped down specifically to pave the way for Mr. Burnham’s return to the legislature — and an eventual bid to replace Mr. Starmer and his misstep-plagued administration that threatens to undermine the party’s hold on power.  

Britain’s political system offers no straightforward route to challenge Mr. Starmer. To have any shot at leading Labor, Mr. Burnham first has to win Thursday’s race against a conservative Reform Party candidate — Robert Kenyon, a local plumber. 

If Mr. Burnham wins a return ticket to Parliament, — he originally served there from 2001 to 2017 — he then must prevail in a potentially bruising party leadership contest to become prime minister. 

The next general election is not scheduled until 2029.

“It’s a high-stakes, high-reward gamble. Andy Burnham is well known. Labor voters flocked to Reform in the recent local elections,” said Kiran Rai, a political commentator and former adviser to a Labor Party MP. “Burnham’s message is vote Labor because I want to be prime minister and I can beat Nigel Farage and the Reform Party.”

As mayor of Manchester, Mr. Burnham has largely dodged the criticism aimed at the Labor Party under Mr. Starmer. He has crafted his own distinct populist brand, even earning the nickname “Lord of the North” after a character from the American TV series “Game of Thrones.”

A visit by NewsNGR to Manchester ahead of the special election offered some indication as to why Mr. Burnham remains one of Britain’s most respected regional politicians. The city lacks London’s grandeur, but compensates with a palpable sense of purpose,

Mr. Burnham’s signature achievement is the Bee Network, a highly praised, integrated transportation system with bright yellow buses crisscrossing Greater Manchester. The branding draws on the city’s worker-bee emblem, adopted in the 19th century to symbolize Manchester as a “hive of industry.”

The town’s streetcars glide past scenes that tell the story of modern Britain: brick shells of old textile mills, revitalized industrial sites, gleaming luxury apartments and the futuristic outline of the Imperial War Museum North. At its western end stands the Trafford Center, a shrine to late-20th-century consumerism. Marble halls, gold trim and grandiose architecture are set against faux Roman statues.

The Trafford Center also stands as a symbol of deindustrialization, with people traveling from across the country to shop there. It was built in 1998, not far from Trafford Park, once the site of the Ford Motor Company’s first factory outside America. Trafford Center is the third-largest retail space in the United Kingdom and symbolizes Manchester’s shift from the world’s workshop to yet another stop in the global consumer economy.

While Mr. Burnham’s stock is on the rise, Mr. Starmer’s political future has changed dramatically since he came to power in 2023 with what was described at the time as a generational landslide victory for the left-wing Labor Party. Starmer promised to put “ country first, party second.”

In less than two years, a wave of scandals has chipped away at his public support. Lingering economic worries, intensified by the costs and uncertainty of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, have stoked voter frustration. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage and the Reform Party’s tough stance on immigration is striking a chord with more and more Britons.

Critics have also seized on Mr. Starmer’s ill-conceived appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, reviving debate over Mr. Mandelson’s past association with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and raising broader questions about the prime minister’s political judgment.

Mr. Starmer came perilously close to becoming the shortest-serving Labor prime minister in modern history. After heavy local election losses in May, nearly 100 Labor MPs were reported to have backed an informal effort to replace him, forcing the prime minister into a fight for his political survival. 

Mr. Starmer has vowed to fight in any future challenge for party leadership.

While Mr. Burnham has emerged as the populist voice in the Labor Party, Mr. Starmer faces a few other potential challengers as well.  

Wes Streeting resigned as Health secretary in May and has called for a new leadership contest to replace Mr. Starmer. Mr. Streeting is seen as part of the more pro-market wing of the party. His strong Atlanticist credentials might mean he has the best chance to improve the U.S.-U.K. “special relationship” that has languished under Mr. Starmer who opposed the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran and has clashed with American President Trump.

The Labor Party has never had a female leader, but tough-on-crime Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and firebrand deputy Angela Rayner are increasingly seen as possible contenders for the leadership. Their differing political styles reflect the wider debate over the future direction of modern Britain.

“Britain has had six prime ministers in 10 years, and four in the past four years,” wrote British historian Anthony Seldon in an opinion article in the Financial Times on May 10. “No organization, no government, no country, can flourish with so much churn at the top. Especially not when accompanied by a change in the two other top posts in the British government, an unprecedented six chancellors of the exchequer and six foreign secretaries since January 2020.”

Mr. Burnham’s economic views are further to the left than Mr. Starmer’s, and he has called for sweeping nationalizations, more borrowing, and higher taxes on wealthy Britons. Though with the election approaching, he has come out in support of more populist views — for example, imposing limits on immigrant access to public funds.

The Makerfield by-election covers part of the wider Wigan area that features in George Orwell’s 1937 non-fiction account of working-class life in Northern England — “The Road to Wigan Pier.”

Nearly 90 years after Orwell chronicled the frustrations of Northern England’s working class, politicians are still competing for many of the same voters. Critics argue that Labor’s emphasis on cultural and identity issues has alienated some working-class voters who remain more concerned about economic issues and immigration.

A poll released May 21 by the global polling firm IPSOS found immigration to be the most important issue for most British voters.

“Looking at the polling, it is a two-horse race. Both trying to oust Starmer, both claiming to be the outsider,” said Gawain Towler, a former adviser to Mr. Farage. “One is a Cambridge graduate, a former think tanker, a political adviser, an MP for 16 years, and has held three Cabinet ministerial posts. The other is a local plumber. If authenticity means anything, Rob Kenyon, the Reform candidate, should shade it.”

Mr. Towler pointed out that the election date is significant for many British voters, as June 18 is Waterloo Day — the anniversary of the Duke of Wellington’s victory over Napoleon at the Battle of Waterloo in 1815.