Wike: Tinubu Will Secure At Least 25% Votes In All Northern States In 2027

Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, has dismissed claims that President Bola Tinubu could suffer significant electoral losses in northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election.

Wike said there was no basis for assuming that political dynamics that shaped the 2023 election would be repeated in 2027, arguing that political calculations and alliances had since changed.

Responding to suggestions that hunger and the removal of petrol subsidy could hurt Tinubu’s chances in the North, Wike said the president would still secure the constitutional threshold of votes required in the region.

“There’s no way in the North the President will not make 25 per cent,” Wike said.

He also argued that Tinubu could secure considerably lower percentages in some parts of southern Nigeria, stressing that electoral calculations should not be based on assumptions about the political mood of an entire region.

Wike rejected claims that his influence in northern Nigeria had waned, saying political influence should be assessed through the networks and structures available to politicians rather than media narratives.

The minister also challenged the suggestion that political leaders in the North were not already positioning themselves for the 2031 presidential election.

“Who told you they are not preparing themselves to run for 2031? Who told you that?” he asked.

According to Wike, some northern politicians could have their own calculations for 2027 and beyond, including positioning themselves for the presidency in 2031.

He also defended the political strategy that contributed to the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, particularly in parts of southern Nigeria.

Wike said political actors had to deploy strategies based on the strengths and weaknesses of their opponents, arguing that the political structures and alliances that existed in 2023 had evolved.

He dismissed the notion that voters were entirely independent in their political decisions, saying individuals and communities often looked up to influential figures when deciding how to vote.

“In every community, in every family, people look up to somebody in terms of vote,” he said.

Wike urged journalists and political commentators to be more practical in their assessment of elections, arguing that issues such as hunger and insecurity alone did not determine voting patterns.

He maintained that political influence, local structures, alliances and the calculations of political actors would remain critical factors in determining the outcome of the 2027 election.