Katsina Strike Tests Nigeria’s Progress Against Bandit-Terrorists Before Elections

But is Team Tinubu Winning, or Just Managing the War?

By Onibiyo Segun and Suleiman Ayuba

(Matazu, Katsina State) – The killing of a feared crime-gang lieutenant of the so-called Filani group August 29 has raised a key question: Is the army’s strategy for defeating bandit-terrorists in the North on the right track?

Authorities describe the strike as a battlefield gain, but security analysts told TruthNigeria that the real measure of success is not the death of one commander. It is whether Filani’s network loses the ability to recruit fighters, finance operations, replace leaders and threaten rural communities.

For Katsina residents who have spent years away from farms and markets because of attacks, victory will not be defined by military claims. It will be measured by whether families return home safely.

Tactical Victory Or Strategic Breakthrough?

“Killing a commander can weaken an armed group but does not guarantee defeat. The real test is whether Filani’s network loses its ability to recruit fighters, finance operations and replace leadership”, Dr. Kabir Adamu, Managing Director of Beacon Security and Intelligence Ltd, told TruthNigeria.

Adamu went on to say, “before elections, body counts matter less than regeneration. If the network can still recruit, collect ransom and move freely, a lieutenant’s death was tactical. If attacks decline and farmers return home, it becomes strategic. Until civilians regain normal life, we cannot call it victory,” 

“A commander’s removal only becomes a strategic victory when troops can hold cleared areas, prevent regrouping and deny armed groups freedom of movement,” said retired military intelligence officer Major Fajola Ojomo to TruthNigeria.

“Killing a lieutenant disrupts a chain of command for weeks, maybe months. But unless you follow with presence and intelligence, the network adapts and appoints a replacement,” Ojomo added.

“The battlefield question in Katsina now is: can the army stay?”

Kachalla Muhammadu Filani’s network is linked to attacks, kidnappings and disruption of farming activities in Matazu, Safana and Batsari counties since 2021. The group operates around rural Katsina near the Rugu Forest region, but its size and territorial reach remain unclear.

Who Was Kachalla Smally?

The fighter killed during the operation was identified by security officials only as “Kachalla Smally,” the name by which he was known within the network.

The military described Smally as a lieutenant operating under Kachalla Muhammadu Filani.

“His unidentified personal name reflects a wider challenge in tracking armed networks where fighters often operate through aliases rather than formal identities,” terrorism researcher Gafar Funtua said.

Criminal Groups Or Terror Networks?

The Katsina conflict has renewed debate over how armed groups in the Northwest should be classified. Many Nigerians have long referred to these groups as “bandits,” a term associated with kidnapping, ransom collection and rural attacks, while security agencies increasingly classify many as terrorists.

Dr. Adamu said, “the issue is not the label but the groups’ behaviour: their ability to control territory, attack civilians, collect ransom and challenge state authority.”

He went on to say, “any strategy must be measured by one question: does violence decrease? If attacks continue, the strategy is not working.”

However, influential security organizations, counter-terrorism experts, and think tanks argue that banditry in Nigeria has risen above mere criminality, evolving into a structural criminal insurgency that actively challenges and seeks to overwhelm the Nigerian state’s authority, according to the Africa Defense Forum. 

The Ado Aleru Test

The Filani operation comes amid continuing debate over government engagement with armed commanders in Katsina.

Critics argue that calling meetings with armed groups “peace talks” risks giving criminal networks political recognition without surrender, disarmament or accountability. The debate intensified after an August 15 Kankara meeting involving Ado Aleru, an armed group figure linked by security sources to violence along the Katsina-Zamfara axis.

TruthNigeria previously reported that the meeting raised questions about whether engagements with armed commanders reduce violence or allow networks to regroup.

The Civilian Test

The operation came as residents told TruthNigeria that repeated attacks forced many farmers in Matazu, Dutsinma and Batsari counties away from their fields.

Malam Lawal Hassan, a Matazu County farmer, said his family abandoned farming after an attack in 2023: “If soldiers have cleared the area, we will return next planting season. But we need them to stay, not just pass”.

Aisha Dikko, whose brother was kidnapped in 2023, said peace means reopened markets, schools and the ability to return home.

As Katsina approaches another election cycle, Smally’s death remains only one measure of the security battle.

The military has shown it can strike armed network commanders. But whether Filani’s network is losing ground depends on declining attacks, weaker recruitment and communities safely returning home. Until then, the operation remains a tactical gain, not a confirmed strategic victory.

Onibiyo Segun and Suleiman Ayuba report on terrorism and conflict for TruthNigeria.

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