Eligible voters in Osun State will head to the polls on August 15, 2026, to elect a governor who will administer the state for the next four years.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) cleared 14 candidates for the contest, including the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, who is seeking a second term on the platform of the Accord Party.
Unlike the previous governorship election, neither the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) nor the Labour Party (LP) will have a candidate on the ballot.
Adeleke’s defection from the PDP to the Accord Party has significantly changed the state’s political calculations and disrupted what would ordinarily have been another major contest between the PDP and the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The election will also mark the first time in recent years that an incumbent governor in Osun State will seek re-election on the platform of a party different from the one that brought him to office.
Three-Way Contest Emerges
An Osogbo-based political scientist, Samson Elesho, who spoke with Daily Trust, described the election as a fiercely contested three-way race involving Adeleke, the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, and the African Democratic Congress flag bearer, Najeem Salaam.
The three leading contenders are from the Osun West Senatorial District, a development expected to influence voting patterns across the zone.
Adeleke hails from Ede North Local Government Area, while Oyebamiji is from Irewole LGA. Salaam, a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, comes from Ejigbo LGA.
The concentration of the major candidates in one senatorial district may reduce the influence of zoning and place greater emphasis on party structures, candidates’ popularity, incumbency and grassroots mobilisation.
Other candidates cleared for the election include Farinloye Olarenwaju of the Action Alliance; Esan Olajide of the African Action Congress (AAC); and Adeagbo Opawoye of the African Democratic Party (ADP).
Also contesting are Adesina Adeyemi-Doro of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); Saliu Oyelami of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP); Ogunsakin Olalekan of the Young Progressives Party (YPP); and Adefemi Adesuyi of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).
Others are Adewale Adebayo of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM); Clement Adesuyi of the Action Peoples Party (APP); Masilo Adeleke of the Boot Party; and Taofeek Adeleke of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Registered Voters Rise, Turnout Falls
INEC figures from the last three governorship elections show that although the number of registered voters in Osun has continued to increase, the percentage of voters who participate in elections has steadily declined.
The number of registered voters increased from 1,411,373 in 2014 to 1,678,985 in 2018 and 1,952,387 in 2022.
Accredited voters also rose from 764,582 in 2014 to 775,687 in 2018 before reaching 827,218 in 2022.
Despite the increase in the number of accredited voters, turnout declined from 54.17 per cent in 2014 to 46.20 per cent in 2018 and 42.37 per cent in 2022.
The total number of votes cast recorded a moderate increase, rising from 750,021 in 2014 to 769,495 in 2018 and 823,124 in 2022.
Valid votes also increased over the period, moving from 717,321 in 2014 to 804,450 in 2022.
Rejected ballots, however, dropped considerably from 47,874 in 2018 to 18,674 in 2022.
The collection of Permanent Voter Cards increased from 1,213,026 in 2014 to 1,518,303 in 2022, but the higher collection rate did not translate into a corresponding rise in voter participation.
Analyst Blames Apathy On Distrust
Political analyst, Jimoh Eruobami, attributed declining turnout to insecurity, distrust in the electoral system and the failure of elected officials to fulfil campaign promises.
According to him, many voters have become discouraged by the belief that participation may not translate into improved governance or credible electoral outcomes.
The August 15 election will therefore test whether intensified campaigns, voter education and the competitive nature of the contest can reverse the decline in participation.
Political parties and candidates are expected to increase mobilisation efforts as they seek to convince registered voters to collect their PVCs and turn up at polling units.
Adeleke enters the election with the advantages of incumbency but also faces uncertainty over whether his political support can be transferred from the PDP to the Accord Party.
The governor defeated the then-incumbent APC administration in 2022 after winning 17 of the state’s 30 local government areas. The APC secured the remaining 13 councils.
His victory was attributed to dissatisfaction with the APC administration at the time, the strength of the PDP structure and Adeleke’s personal popularity.
Four years later, his defection has raised questions about whether the votes secured in 2022 were primarily for him or the PDP.
If a significant number of voters remain loyal to the PDP rather than Adeleke, his movement to the Accord Party could weaken his support base and provide an opening for the APC and ADC candidates.
The governor’s supporters, however, maintain that his popularity and record in office will enable him to retain the coalition of voters that delivered his first-term victory.
Candidates Face Constitutional Spread Requirement
Winning the highest number of votes may not be sufficient to secure the governorship seat.
Under the constitutional requirement, a candidate must obtain a majority of valid votes and at least 25 per cent of votes cast in no fewer than two-thirds of the local government areas in the state.
In Osun, this means that the eventual winner must secure the required vote spread in at least 20 of the 30 local government areas.
The three-way nature of the contest could make the spread requirement particularly important if votes are divided among Adeleke, Oyebamiji and Salaam.
The concentration of the leading candidates in Osun West may also compel them to make significant inroads into Osun Central and Osun East to meet the constitutional threshold.
INEC said it had stepped up preparations for the election, with increased attention to voter education, grassroots participation and the inclusion of vulnerable groups.
The Osun State Resident Electoral Commissioner, Oluwatoyin Babalola, said elections should be treated as a continuous democratic process rather than an activity limited to polling day.
She warned that the absence of sustained voter education could further reduce public participation.
Babalola identified misinformation, political apathy, lack of confidence in the electoral process and inadequate access to reliable election information as factors discouraging voters.
She said citizens should not only be informed about the election date but must also understand the importance of exercising their right to vote.
Officials Take Sensitisation To Communities
To improve public awareness, the REC directed electoral and assistant electoral officers to expand sensitisation campaigns at the grassroots.
She asked officials to engage residents in markets, schools, motor parks, places of worship and other public spaces.
Babalola also encouraged collaboration with traditional rulers and religious leaders to spread accurate information about voting procedures and the election timetable.
She urged officials to ensure that women, young people, senior citizens and persons with disabilities were not excluded from the electoral process.
As political campaigns enter their final phase, attention will be focused on the ability of INEC and security agencies to guarantee a peaceful and credible election, as well as the capacity of the candidates to mobilise voters across the 30 local government areas.
