The Special Adviser on Research, Policy and Strategy to the National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Chille Igbawua, has dismissed former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal’s prediction that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would lose the 2027 presidential election.
Igbawua said Lawal’s position lacked facts, data or any scientific basis, describing it as a personal wish rather than a credible electoral assessment.
He stated this during an interview on Arise News on Tuesday.
According to him, Lawal merely expressed a desire for Atiku to lose without presenting any evidence to support the prediction.
“I think the statement that this projection need not be commented upon is a right one. When you just say you are praying, as a matter of prayer, everyone has a right to pray, he said, ‘I pray he loses. He will surely lose. I pray he loses.’
“That is not a scientific approach to a projection that you can argue against. So it becomes difficult to argue against a person who has no basis for making a projection,” he said.
Igbawua said the ADC was focused on strengthening its political structures and developing programmes capable of winning the election.
He maintained that the party had produced one of the most comprehensive policy documents among Nigeria’s political parties.
“I believe that ADC has its programmes well set out. I believe that we have one of the most robust manifestos of any political party in Nigeria at the moment.
“We have a clear-cut policy document that we are going to work on, and our objective has always been—and has not changed—to rescue Nigeria from the drift that we are witnessing continually,” he said.
The ADC official added that the party’s confidence was based on political analysis and organisational work rather than mere rhetoric.
“We are working on what it takes to win an election. So when we speak about winning, we’re not speaking just rhetorics; we’re speaking from the work and the analysis we’re doing,” he added.
Obi Joined Coalition Late – Igbawua
Speaking on the exit of former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, from the ADC, Igbawua said Obi was not part of the original opposition coalition that eventually adopted the party as its political platform.
He explained that Obi joined after the coalition had concluded its discussions and selected the ADC.
“The project started long, long before Peter Obi came in. Let us not make the mistake of thinking that Peter Obi was part of this opposition coalition movement that transmuted into the ADC; he was not.
“He only came in December last year, December 31, after everything had been done, and we had gone through all the processes of what we needed to do. We had chosen a platform before he came in,” he stated.
ADC Defends Presidential Primary
Igbawua also rejected allegations that the ADC’s presidential primary violated internal or electoral rules.
He said the process complied with the party’s constitution, the Electoral Act and the Nigerian Constitution.
“And of course, they are all wrong. Everything that we did from the beginning up to this point is in accordance with the constitution of the party, in accordance with the Electoral Act, and in accordance with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
“So when somebody makes such allegations, he should justify them,” he said.
Although he admitted that the exercise was not perfect, Igbawua argued that the ADC subjected itself to a more competitive and democratic process than other parties.
“I do not insist that this was the cleanest primary that ever held, but I also agree that there is no political party that has subjected itself to the processes that we did.
“Certainly, Labour Party did not; APC did not. They simply just selected candidates. Then others didn’t even attempt it,” he said.
He maintained that the ADC’s process demonstrated a stronger commitment to internal democracy.
“We’re saying, whereas it may not be perfect, what we did had a closer appearance of internal democracy than what any other party in Nigeria today has had,” he added.
Aide Faults Obi-Kwankwaso Calculations
Commenting on a possible Obi-Rabiu Kwankwaso presidential ticket, Igbawua faulted projections that simply combined the votes secured by both politicians in previous elections.
He argued that electoral strength could not be determined merely by adding together past results.
“The issue is, particularly bearing from the assessment of Babachir Lawal, his own assessment of the two political personalities individually is that each of them is a disaster.
“He said Peter Obi is a disaster, Kwankwaso is a disaster on their own. But when paired together, that is his personal opinion; when paired up, they can get 70 per cent.
“Now, I do not know the arithmetic where two disasters make a success. That is his own assessment. I’m quoting him; I’m not saying something new,” he said.
Igbawua said some analysts may be relying on the votes secured by Obi and Kwankwaso in the 2023 election without considering other political factors.
“Sometimes assessment is by counting votes in previous elections. So maybe you count Peter Obi’s votes in the 2023 elections and also count Kwankwaso’s votes in the 2023 election,” he added.
Amaechi Not A Pushover – ADC
The ADC aide also criticised comparisons between an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket and Atiku alone, insisting that both presidential and vice-presidential candidates must be considered.
He said former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi, also possessed significant political influence, having finished second in a previous All Progressives Congress presidential primary.
“That is when you are saying Atiku has no running mate. You are putting two together on that ticket; you must put two on this ticket too.
“Remember that Rotimi Amaechi contested the presidency under APC and came second, so he’s not a pushover either. So if you put a ticket, you must also count the ticket as two people coming together,” he said.
Igbawua suggested that Lawal’s comments may have been influenced by disappointment over unmet political expectations.
“Of course, if somebody has been in a project and had expectations which have failed, he’s bound to be frustrated, and I understand why the former SGF expressed frustration, which he did when he was leaving the party,” he said.
He insisted that an Atiku-Amaechi ticket would be stronger than an Obi-Kwankwaso combination.
“I believe that it is absolutely faulty to suggest that an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket is stronger than an Atiku-Rotimi Amaechi ticket. Certainly not,” he added.
Atiku Has Stronger Electoral Record
Igbawua said Atiku had a stronger electoral history than Obi and Kwankwaso, noting that the three politicians had previously contested against one another.
“Yes, he has good standing. Than the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket? Certainly, certainly. I mean, they’ve contested against one another in the past and he came out top,” he said.
He, however, stressed that the ADC wanted governance to be driven by party policies rather than the personality of individual candidates.
“What the ADC is trying to do is to remove the weight of governance from individuals and put it on the political party.
“That’s why we have a manifesto which candidates will have to follow. We have a clear-cut security programme,” he stated.
According to him, the party’s policy framework is designed to address existing failures and produce measurable results.
“The idea of every programme that we have in our policy document is to fix what is broken, to build what is missing, and to ensure that governance delivers clear, measurable outcomes,” he said.
On the removal of petrol subsidy, Igbawua said the ADC was not opposed to the policy but criticised the Federal Government’s management of the resources generated from it.
He argued that the government had failed to clearly account for the savings or deploy them in a way that reduced the hardship caused by the policy.
“The issue is that fuel subsidy had been removed. Nobody argued against it; most people, the majority, did not argue against the removal of fuel subsidy. But how you do it is what matters,” he said.
According to him, a policy introduced for the public good becomes problematic when it imposes hardship without corresponding relief.
“Now, this government has not accounted for the outcomes or the dividends of fuel subsidy removal, neither in terms of bringing out figures to say, ‘This is what has come, and this is how it has been deployed,’” he said.
Igbawua maintained that the controversy was not about restoring the subsidy but ensuring transparency in the use of the additional revenue.
“I don’t object to fuel subsidy removal, and I don’t think anybody is coming to say we will re-enact or reintroduce fuel subsidy.
“But the management of resources arising from the fuel subsidy is what the cry is about,” he added.
Party Promises Youth, Women Inclusion
Addressing concerns about Atiku’s appeal among younger voters, Igbawua said the former vice president would contest on the platform of a party with clear policies on youth and women inclusion.
He noted that the ADC had deliberately appointed young people and women to senior positions within its leadership.
“The African Democratic Congress has one of the best policies for youth inclusion, as well as female inclusion.
“You will notice that we have deliberately, as a policy, brought a lot of young men into the leadership of the party,” he said.
Igbawua cited the appointment of a woman in her 30s as the party’s Deputy National Secretary as evidence of the ADC’s commitment to younger Nigerians.
He also said two of the party’s six deputy national chairmen were women, while the ADC had both male and female youth leaders.
“So, ADC is giving a lot of opportunities to youth. We are also doing a lot with women—gender sensitivity by including women in governance,” he stated.
The ADC official added that Atiku had a history of surrounding himself with younger politicians and professionals.
“Atiku has a lot of young men around him. He has always done that in the past, and he still keeps a lot of young men around him.
“So, the ADC is going out as a political party that has a clear policy of youth and women inclusion, and when our documents are out, you’ll begin to see that,” he said.
